Written on Nov 15, 2012
Following the two celebs saying on press yesterday, it’s time for the world most influential investors - Warren Buffet - to speak something. Whilst it’s not ideal, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway thinks that Obama must be willing to keep pushing for higher taxes on the wealthy, even if it triggers the fiscal cliff. He shrugged off any gurus’ warnings that failure to address the cliff by Dec 31 could torpedo the US economy. Also, he laughed off concerns that higher capital gains taxes could change how individuals invest in stocks or bonds. “Never in 60 years of managing money have I come up with an idea and had someone say ‘I’d do it but the tax rates are too high’.” Well, that’s ironic but true! However, he pointed that the biggest drain on the US economy and US growth going forward is healthcare. “It’s the tapeworm of our economy,” Buffet said, noting that health care costs currently account for 17% of US GDP. In a nutshell, Buffet insisted that he sees the economy improving and that jobs will eventually follow. “We will gain a lot of jobs in the next four years. I can promise you that.”
Meanwhile, at home, although the World Bank is bullish on Thailand’s prospects for 2013 foreseeing the economy could grow by 5% and exports could grow by 8%, I still worry given several risks we have to face onward, i.e. lower commodity prices – esp. for rice – slow disbursement of the government budget, the increase in the daily minimum wage, and the continuing euro-zone crisis. If you read my notes ceaselessly for a month, you would realize the bearish tone I have espoused so far saying that the SET's upside would be limited accompanied by many reasons. Still, I don’t anticipate much downside for 2012 thanks to the traditional desire of tax payers to purchase long term equity fund and retirement mutual fund to reduce their taxes before the end of this year.
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